Afghan army takes on Taliban in first solo offensive

KABUL, Afghanistan — The Afghan army is waging its largest-ever solo offensive against the Taliban, hoping to strike a decisive blow ahead of the spring fighting season and prove it can rout the insurgents without the aid of U.S. and NATO combat troops.

Afghan troops have been slowly pushing up through a fertile river valley in the southern Helmand province, with special forces mounting nighttime helicopter raids into mud brick compounds and ground troops gradually advancing across the poppy fields that in past years have furnished the insurgents' main cash crop.

U.S. and British troops suffered some of their biggest losses of the decade-long war here, seizing territory that was later lost by ill-equipped and poorly trained Afghan forces. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has vowed to break the grim cycle, and the latest offensive is widely seen as a test for his efforts to overhaul the army and police since taking office in September.

Ghani was personally involved in planning the operation, which is codenamed Zolfiqar - meaning double-edged sword - and which began on Feb. 10, according to Maj. Gen. Kurt Fuller, deputy chief of staff for U.S. and NATO operations in Afghanistan. Ghani heads to Washington later this month, where he is expected to seek enhanced U.S. military backup, particularly air support.

"This is an incredibly important operation," said a Western diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss the secret operation. "This is Ghani's attempt to demonstrate to the U.S. and the U.S. Congress that Afghan ground forces are able to take the lead and conduct offensive operations if they have the right enablers to support them."

U.S. and Afghan officials say local security forces are so far proving they can take the fight to the Taliban without the aid of foreign combat troops. There are 13,000 foreign soldiers in the country, down from a peak of 140,000 in 2009-2010, with 5,000 U.S. troops engaged in counterterrorism operations against the Taliban and al-Qaida.

U.S. military leaders have advised the troops in Helmand and helped plan the operation, but American troops are not involved in the fighting.

Fuller said the troops have already cleared large areas where the insurgents had been entrenched for more than a decade, saying the Taliban's casualties were higher than those of government forces by "a factor of 10 to one."

He said Afghan forces had found bunkers, tunnels, trench lines, and a giant slingshot apparently used to fling grenades at government forces.

He said the Sangin district, which had seen months of heavy fighting, was declared clear on Friday, adding that Afghan forces had "met with heavy resistance that was more than they anticipated."

Gen. Mohammad Salim Ahses, the head of the national police, told The Associated Press by telephone from Sangin that 385 Taliban fighters had been killed there, including 31 commanders. It was not possible to confirm those figures. The areas where the fighting is taking place are not accessible to journalists, and few Afghan officials were willing to speak about the operation.

The international charity Emergency said its hospitals in Lashkar Gah, Helmand's capital, and the national capital Kabul had seen casualties almost double in February to 226 over the same month last year due to increased insurgent violence across the country, according to program coordinator Luca Radaelli.

"We are definitely seeing a spike in the number of war casualties coming in from the operation in Helmand," he said, adding that most were men and many were policemen. Further details on the casualties, including a breakdown of dead and wounded on each side, were not immediately available.

The real test will come later, when Afghan forces try to hold hard-won territory.

Fuller said Afghan officials have begun meeting with local leaders to plan the building of new schools, clinics, police stations and courthouses. He said tribal elders are already helping to recruit residents for the local police and border guard.

Helmand's deputy governor, Mohammad Jan Rasoolyar, said small army and police posts, each of which will house 100 men, are being built across the valley. "This time we are moving according to a proper plan" to keep the Taliban from returning, he said. "We will not leave this place alone."

Associated Press correspondents Mirwais Khan in Lashkar Gah, Afghanistan, and Rahim Faiez and Amir Shah in Kabul, Afghanistan, contributed to this story.

Iraq launches operation to retake Tikrit from Islamic State

BAGHDAD — Backed by allied Shiite, Sunni and Iranian fighters, Iraqi security forces launched a large-scale military operation Monday to recapture Saddam Hussein's hometown from the Islamic State extremist group, a major step in a campaign to reclaim territory in northern Iraq controlled by the militants.

But hours into the operation, a key test for the embattled Iraqi army, the military said it still hadn't entered the city of Tikrit, indicating a long battle lies ahead.

State-run Al-Iraqiya television said that forces were attacking Tikrit from different directions, backed by artillery and airstrikes by Iraqi fighter jets. It said the militants were dislodged from some areas outside the city. Several hours into the operation, it gave no additional details.

The military commander of Salahuddin region, Gen. Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi, told state TV the operation was "going on as planned," with fighting taking place outside Tikrit mainly on its eastern side.

"Until this moment we have not entered the city," al-Saadi said. "God willing, we will enter, but we need some time as planned. ... God willing, victory will be achieved and Salahuddin will be turned into a grave for all terrorist groups."

Tikrit, the provincial capital of Salauhddin province, 130 kilometers (80 miles) north of Baghdad, fell to the Islamic State group last summer, along with the country's second-largest city of Mosul and other areas in the country's Sunni heartland.

Tikrit is one of the largest cities held by Islamic State militants and lies on the road connecting Baghdad to Mosul. Retaking it will help Iraqi forces have a major supply link for any future operation to retake Mosul.

U.S. military officials have said a coordinated military mission to retake Mosul will likely begin in April or May and involve up to 25,000 Iraqi troops. But the Americans have cautioned that if the Iraqis aren't ready, the offensive could be delayed.

The U.S.-led coalition launching airstrikes targeting the Islamic State group were not involved in the Tikrit operation, Iraqi officials said. American officials had no immediate comment.

Past attempts to retake Tikrit have failed, however, as Iraq struggles with its armed forces, which collapsed in the wake of the Islamic State group's offensive last summer.

Iraqi forces battling near Tikrit also apparently have the help of Iranian Gen. Ghasem Soleimani, the commander of the elite Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force, who arrived there two days ago, the Iranian semi-official Fars news agency reported.

The powerful general has emerged as the chief tactician in Iraq's fight against the Sunni militants, working on the front lines alongside dozens of advisers from his country's Revolutionary Guard to direct Shiite militiamen and government forces in the smallest details of some battles.

Fars also reported drones were flying over Tikrit, without identifying whether the drones were Iranian or Iraqi.

Hours after the offensive began, the U.N. special envoy in Iraq appealed to warring groups to avoid attacking civilians.

"Military operations reinforced by international and Iraqi air support must be conducted with the utmost care to avoid civilian casualties, and with full respect for fundamental human rights principles and humanitarian law," Nickolay Mladenov said in a statement.

Monday afternoon, a gasoline tanker rigged with a bomb exploded as soldiers and Shiite militiamen tried to dismantle it in the village of al-Jalam south of Tikrit, killing seven troops and wounding 15, police and hospital officials said.

Al-Jalam, a farming area that has been a stronghold of Sunni militants, is located outside the Sunni city of Samarra, 95 kilometers (60 miles) north of Baghdad. All officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to journalists.

Tikrit is an important test case for Iraq's Shiite-led government, which is trying to reassert authority over the divided country. Islamic State fighters have a strong presence in the city and are expected to put up fierce resistance.

The offensive comes as momentum has begun to shift since Iraqi soldiers, backed by airstrikes from a U.S.-led coalition, took back the nearby refinery town of Beiji in November. Any operation to take Mosul would require Iraq to seize Tikrit first because of its strategic location for military enforcements.

Iraq is bitterly split between minority Sunnis, who were an important base of support for Saddam, and the Shiite majority. Since Saddam was toppled in a U.S.-led invasion in 2003, the Sunni minority has felt increasingly marginalized by the Shiite-led government in Baghdad, and in 2006 long-running tensions boiled over into sectarian violence that claimed tens of thousands of lives.

While the TV said Shiite and Sunni tribal fighters were cooperating in Monday's offensive, Tikrit is an important Sunni stronghold, and the presence of Shiite forces risks could prompt a backlash among Sunnis. The Iraqi military is heavily dependent on Shiite militias that have been accused of abusing Sunni communities elsewhere in Iraq.

Ahead of the operation, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, a Shiite, called on Sunni tribal fighters to abandon the Islamic State extremist group, offering what he described as "the last chance" and promising them a pardon.

"I call upon those who have been misled or committed a mistake to lay down arms and join their people and security forces in order to liberate their cities," al-Abadi said Sunday during a news conference in Samarra.

His comments appeared to be targeting former members of Iraq's outlawed Baath party, loyalists to Saddam, who joined the Islamic State group during its offensive, as well as other Sunnis who were dissatisfied with Baghdad's Shiite-led government.

Saddam, whose Sunni-dominated government ruled the country for some two decades, was executed after his ouster. Tikrit frequently saw attacks on U.S. forces during the American occupation of the country.

Associated Press writers Amir Vahdat in Tehran, Iran, and Sameer N. Yacoub contributed to this report.

U.S. Senate race in Missouri highlights changing attitude about candidates' military service

Jason Kander of Missouri announced his 2016 U.S. Senate candidacy in a video that starts at the airport.

“I hugged my wife and my parents and said goodbye,” Kander tells the viewer, recalling his departure from Kansas City International Airport for overseas military service.

“They needed more soldiers in Afghanistan.”

Using military service for political persuasion has been common for generations. The first U.S. president was a veteran. Kander, currently Missouri’s secretary of state, is expected to use the tool against Sen. Roy Blunt, who never served in the armed forces, particularly if the race centers on foreign policy.

Yet operatives in both parties say military service is not enough, by itself, to elect Kander or any other candidate in 2016. Voters are less interested in military service, or the lack of it, than in other issues closer to home — in part because an all-volunteer military has reduced the direct exposure of most American families to overseas conflicts.

“No doubt being a veteran will help Kander,” said George Connor, a Missouri State University political science professor. “But is that enough to make him less of a Democrat? Is that enough to defeat Sen. Blunt? I think the answer is no.”

In 2014, overseas military veterans from Sen. Tom Cotton in Arkansas to Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa won races at least partly on the strength of their personal military records, which were widely advertised. Other veterans have had success in other campaigns.

In a video released Friday, presidential candidate Rick Perry touts his service in the Air Force, pointing out other presidential hopefuls did not serve.

“And that matters,” Perry says in the video.

But national election outcomes for veterans have been mixed. There were 184 veterans nominated by the two major parties for House and Senate seats in 2014, according to a group called Veterans Campaign. In January, the Congressional Research Service said 101 vets serve in the new Congress, about 19 percent of its members.

In 1971, 73 percent of members were veterans.

The declining ratio reflects an important fact: Far fewer Americans are exposed to military service today than decades ago. That may have diminished the sense of shared sacrifice common in some earlier conflicts, making military service less crucial for budding politicians.

That’s true for young politicians, but it also applies to older candidates like Blunt, who grew up in the Vietnam War era.

At one time in American politics, Vietnam service was a white-hot issue: Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, John Kerry and others faced intense questions about their draft status and war service.

But military citations weren’t enough for Kerry or for Sen. John McCain, who also lost a presidential campaign. With each election cycle, the passions of Vietnam veterans and civilians appear to cool and make service records less relevant for voters.

“We’re the old guys now,” said Randy Barnett, president of the Kansas City chapter of the Vietnam Veterans of America.

U.S. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, a Democrat, was old enough for the draft in the 1960s. He was not drafted, his office said, because of a knee injury.

Republicans tried to raise the issue during Cleaver’s first congressional campaign, claiming an age mistake on his driver’s license was draft-related. Cleaver, 70, denied the accusation and won. It hasn’t come up since.

The military draft ended in the early 1970s. Selective service registration was reinstated in the 1980s and remains in place, but the armed services remain all-voluntary.

Blunt, 65, was eligible for the Vietnam-era draft and was classified 1-A. He was part of the first Vietnam War Selective Service lottery, but his number was so high (325) that he was not called. He did not enlist.

Republicans say that lack of service will not be an issue next year.

“Voters evaluate all aspects of a candidate’s record,” Missouri GOP spokesman Jonathan Prouty said in an emailed statement. “Missouri voters know that Senator Blunt is a vocal and aggressive champion for our nation’s servicemen and women.”

And Missouri Democrats say they won’t make an issue of Blunt’s civilian status.

“Voters will have plenty of other reasons not to support him, irrespective of whether or not he served in the military,” said Roy Temple, state Democratic Party chairman.

At the same time, Kander’s campaign will not back away from highlighting the candidate’s service as an intelligence officer in Afghanistan. During his first statewide campaign, Kander used his combat boots in a TV commercial that some say led to his surprise victory.

The Blunt-Kander military comparison may become important if foreign affairs becomes a central part of the 2016 campaign, as expected. In recent weeks, Blunt has sharply criticized the White House for its approach to the rise of the Islamic State group in Syria and Iraq, claiming the strategy isn’t clear.

Yet Blunt has not yet called for an on-the-ground U.S. military force to oppose the Islamic State, sometimes referred to as ISIS. Neither has Kander.

“We shouldn’t take any options off the table when it comes to our mission of eradicating ISIS,” Kander said in an email, “but I hope it doesn’t come to putting troops on the ground.”

Linking military service with real-world, contemporary issues such as the threat posed by the Islamic State will be critical for both Missouri Senate candidates, consultants say.

Kander’s service may help insulate him from charges that he’s weak on military matters and national defense, Democrats argue. At the same time, Blunt may feel the need to be even more aggressive on military affairs — including veterans benefits and domestic military spending — to counter Kander’s expected argument that he knows more about national defense than Blunt.

Both campaigns appear to understand the race won’t turn exclusively on military experience.

Travis Smith worked on U.S. Rep. Martha McSally’s House campaign in Arizona. McSally is a retired colonel in the Air Force who flew combat missions over Iraq.

Yet Smith says McSally won her narrow victory only by expanding her campaign beyond her service record.

“It was helpful for ‘star power/action hero status’ to get her on cable news and help raise money,” Smith recalled in an email.

“But all that alone does not a congressman or -woman make. We had to turn her into a real human being who had a story to tell, was substantive on issues, and connected with voters outside of the military record.”

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©2015 The Kansas City Star (Kansas City, Mo.)

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Iraq state TV: Operation to retake Tikrit begins

BAGHDAD — Backed by allied Shiite and Sunni fighters, Iraqi security forces on Monday began a large-scale military operation to recapture Saddam Hussein's hometown from the Islamic State extremist group, state TV said, a major step in a campaign to reclaim a large swath of territory in northern Iraq controlled by the militants.

The city of Tikrit, some 130 kilometers (80 miles) north of Baghdad, fell into the hands of the Islamic State group last summer along with the country's second-largest city of Mosul and other areas in the country's Sunni heartland after the collapse of national security forces. Tikrit is one of the largest cities held by the Islamic State group and sits on the road to Mosul.

Security forces have so far been unable to retake Tikrit, but momentum has begun to shift after soldiers, backed by airstrikes from a U.S.-led coalition, recently took back the nearby refinery town of Beiji. Any operation to take Mosul likely would require Iraq to seize Tikrit first because of its strategic location for military enforcements.

Al-Iraqiya television said that the forces were attacking Tikrit from different directions, backed by artillery and airstrikes by Iraqi fighter jets. It said the militants were dislodged from some areas outside the city, but gave no details.

Iraq is bitterly divided between minority Sunnis, who were an important base of support for Saddam, and the Shiite majority. The cooperation between Shiite and Sunni fighters in Monday's operation was an important development in the battle against the Islamic State group, though the presence of Shiite forces in the Sunni area risks prompting a backlash in the future.

Hours ahead of the operation, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, a Shiite, called on Sunni tribal fighters to abandon the extremist group, offering what he described as "the last chance" and promising them a pardon.

"I call upon those who have been misled or committed a mistake to lay down arms and join their people and security forces in order to liberate their cities," al-Abadi said Sunday during a news conference in Samarra, 95 kilometers (60 miles) north of Baghdad.

Al-Abadi offered what he called "the last chance" for Sunni tribal fighters, promising them a pardon. "The city will soon return to its people," he added.

His comments appeared to be targeting former members of Iraq's outlawed Baath party, loyalists to Saddam, who joined the Islamic State group during its offensive, as well as other Sunnis who were dissatisfied with Baghdad's Shiite-led government.

Saddam, the country's longtime ruler, was ousted in 2003 by U.S. forces and later executed. Tikrit frequently saw attacks on U.S. forces during the American occupation of the country.

Actor Vince Vaughn visits, brings "Unfinished Business" to Edwards AFB

EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. — Vince Vaughn was in the middle of filming “Wedding Crashers” when he learned that Pat Tillman was killed in Afghanistan.

The death of the pro-football-player-turned soldier really affected him, he said, and he immediately called the USO to see if he could bring his new comedy, “Dodgeball” to the troops.

The call led to his first USO tour, in June 2004. Later, he traveled around the world screening “Wedding Crashers” for servicemembers in September 2005.

Saturday, Vaughn flew to this isolated desert base 100 miles northeast of Los Angeles for his third USO tour, meeting a handful of airmen and their families before introducing an advance screening of his newest comedy, “Unfinished Business.”

Vaughn’s father served in the Navy, one of his sisters served in the Army Reserve and Texas Army National Guard, and his family has a tradition of military service dating all the way back to the American Revolution, he said, so he enjoys being able to bring a few laughs to those serving now.

“It’s nice to be in a position to say thank you,” Vaughn said. “It’s inspiring to be around such inspiring people.”

Vaughn landed at Edwards on Saturday afternoon and spent time at the on-post library talking to and taking photos with about two dozen airmen and their families before heading to the base theater to introduce the movie.

Vaughn laughed as he told the airmen that on his first USO tour, shortly after “Dodgeball” was released, he was surprised that many deployed servicemembers had already seen the movie – illegally recorded versions purchased overseas. This time, he said, he hoped he was able to actually give troops their first look at his new movie, which isn’t due to be released until Friday.

Airman 1st Class Logan Patrick, of Sherwood, Ore., said he was impressed that Vaughn took the time to come visit Edwards.

“It’s not every day you get to meet someone who is in movies,” he said. “It’s just a cool experience.”

Airman 1st Class Nick Ledbetter, of Montgomery, Ala., said he thought the movie was awesome, and called the event itself “a huge morale booster.”

“There’s not a lot to do around here,” he said, so having a movie screening was particularly special.

Senior Airman Jacob Fowler, of Jacksonville, Fla., agreed.

“This makes us feel a little important once in a while,” he said.

Vaughn said he enjoys spending time talking to servicemembers, and though he can’t see himself “flying stuff,” the Air Force would likely be his choice if he joined the service.

“The Air Force bases do seem to be the nicest,” he said.

hlad.jennifer@stripes.com; Twitter: @jhlad

'SNL': Fake ISIS ad with Dakota Johnson divides Twittersphere

A spoof of a Toyota commercial on "Saturday Night Live" stirred some social media chatter for showing a father sending his daughter to join Islamic State, the militant group also known as ISIS.

Dakota Johnson, holding a flag, plays a young woman going off to fight with the Islamic State militant group in a fake ISIS commercial on "Saturday Night Live."

The fake commercial, starring Saturday's "SNL" host Dakota Johnson ("Fifty Shades of Grey") and cast member Taran Killam, is a play on the end of Toyota's "My Bold Dad" commercial, in which a father appears to drop his daughter off to join the U.S. military.

After a corny goodbye, Killam's character says, "You be careful OK." Johnson's character replies, "Dad it's just ISIS," and winks.

"Take care of her," a teary-eyed Killam says as a supposed Islamic State fighter nods and says, "Death to America." The spot ends with a female voiceover saying: “ISIS: We’ll take it from here, Dad."

Last night, "SNL" was tweeted about 25,000 times, according to Nielsen data. Of these tweets, about 9,926 contained "reactions," or tweets with emotions, according to Canvs, a social TV platform created by the firm Mashwork.

The company uses relevant tweets, provided by Nielsen, to gauge what emotions people have about TV. The tweets are then broken down into reactions.

An estimated 8.7% of those reaction tweets contained the topic ISIS, including 1.3% that contained the hashtag #ISIS. Some of the reaction tweets contained the hashtag #notfunny.

One Twitter user wrote, "Horrible opening for @nbcsnl #ISIS Are you nuts?! Not funny AT ALL!!"

Another wrote, "@SNLorneMichaels @nbcsnl #ISIS sketch made me physically ill... I'm truly shocked & offended."

"Wow, I think in the 35+ years of watching @nbcsnl the ISIS skit is the first one that truly offended me. #NotFunny @nbc," added another Twitter user.

Despite the backlash, the official "SNL" Twitter account on Sunday tweeted a link to the sketch with a photo from it and the words "A father/daughter moment."

Some took to social media to defend the sketch.

Comedian Arsenio Hall tweeted: "ISIS: We'll take it from here dad! #hilarious."

"Oh, I'm supposed to be more offended by the ISIS skit. Yes, that was horrible for being well-conceived and funny? #SNL," said another user.

"Seriously? SNL is being criticized for mocking Isis, and the people who join it? There's no group more deserving of ridicule. Thumbs up #SNL," echoed another user.

This isn't the first time "SNL" has made Islamic State a target of parody. In November, when Chris Rock guest-starred, the show made fun of "Shark Tank" by portraying a group of ISIS members pitching to judges.

"Who's ready to invest in crushing the West?" the militants say in their fake pitch. That episode earned the show its highest ratings since last February.

Saturday's episode was the No. 1 telecast of the night on the Big 4 networks in the key 18-to-49-year-old demographic with a rating of 3.8, according to early Nielsen ratings. It posted a rating of 1.9/9 in adults 18-49 in the 25 markets with Local People Meters.

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©2015 the Los Angeles Times

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Rolling Thunder escalated US involvement in Vietnam's civil war, pulled ground troops into combat

In 1964, Keith Connolly was a young Air Force pilot and was among the first Americans to fly sorties in the F-100 Super Sabre fighter bomber targeting the North Vietnamese communist insurgency.

“The atmosphere was that we were going over there to provide the firepower necessary to bring the North Vietnamese to their knees,” said Connolly, who now lives in Arizona after retiring from 35 years in the Air Force.

The average American back then paid scant attention to the long-simmering civil war on the Indochina peninsula, where the U.S. had sent military advisors but was not yet involved in direct ground combat.

“It was the only war in town, and it was going to be over with tomorrow,” Connelly recalled. “Boy, were we wrong.”

On March 2, 1965, the U.S. commenced such bombing raids in earnest with Operation Rolling Thunder, a massive, joint Navy-Air Force campaign of more than 300,000 attack sorties over 3½ years.

Connolly and hundreds of other Air Force and Navy pilots would be drawn into that bombing campaign focused on North Vietnam, an operation now largely regarded as a failure that escalated U.S. involvement in the civil war, pulled American ground troops into combat and led to scores of downed U.S. flyers spending years in North Vietnam POW camps.

“What it led to was an escalation of military force on the American side and a corresponding effort to keep up on the Vietnamese side, which lasted for another 10 years,” said Marilyn B. Young, a history professor at New York University who co-edited the book “Iraq and the Lessons of Vietnam, Or, How Not to Learn from the Past.” “I think Rolling Thunder was a profound failure.”

“It was just a mess, from start to finish,” said James H. Willbanks, a veteran of the war and author of numerous books on the subject, including “Abandoning Vietnam: How America Left and South Vietnam Lost its War.”

Scholars point to numerous reasons Rolling Thunder was ineffective: heavy-handed restrictions on targets, shifting and vague operational goals, underestimation of the enemy, lack of intensity and confused evaluation.

“And in the process, we lost over 500 aircraft to no particular end,” Willbanks said.

No magic formula

Rolling Thunder sprang from a cantankerous debate and mutual mistrust between President Lyndon Johnson’s civilian security advisers, particularly Defense Secretary Robert McNamara, and top military officials over how to deal militarily with the spread of communist insurgency in Southeast Asia.

Johnson’s advisers argued for waging of a limited war, a concept that was largely anathema to military heads who had cut their teeth on the full-scale World War II.

Such a limited bombing campaign would employ gradual pressure on North Vietnam “until they finally reached the point where the North Vietnamese leadership would say, ‘We give. We say uncle,’ ” said Edward Marolda, a naval historian and author of “By Sea, Air and Land: An Illustrated History of the U.S. Navy and the War in Southeast Asia.”

“If you’re not achieving success when you start bombing, then you would increase the bombing and military pressure,” Marolda said. But there was always a self-imposed “ceiling” on that pressure because Johnson and McNamara feared that bombing too intensely — or too close to the border of China — could trigger direct Chinese or Soviet Union intervention on behalf of North Vietnam, he said.

“They did not want to generate World War III,” he said, but the U.S. never found that “magic formula” of pressure.

“As it turned out, gradual escalation gave the enemy time to improve anti-aircraft defenses and to take other measures to reduce the impact of the bombing,” said Mark Moyar, author of “Triumph Forsaken: The Vietnam War, 1954-1965.”

When North Vietnam did not cave in, Rolling Thunder morphed into “Plan B,” with a goal of stemming the flow of supplies and personnel to the insurgency in the South, primarily through the Ho Chi Minh Trail, Marolda said.

Pilots in danger

As Rolling Thunder rumbled on, missions became ever more risky for the men flying them.

Connolly recalled that the anti-aircraft gunners in North Vietnam in 1964 were “not that good.”

“They were like us,” he said. “In fact, in our squadron, we did not have a person who had been involved in combat before. This was all new to us.”

When Connolly went back for his second tour of duty, he found that Rolling Thunder had ushered in a new era.

“When I returned in ’65 and things got more intense and we started losing more air crews, it became very apparent that we had underestimated our foe,” he said.

“In the early days, when you’d go across a target, they’d shoot at you. They weren’t horribly accurate. Later on, they wouldn’t shoot at you until they got the ideal shot. They became much more disciplined.

“Conversely, we got better at our job, which was basically getting into the target, delivering munitions and escaping.”

Some didn’t escape. Among them was Sen. John McCain, then a Navy aviator who was shot down near Hanoi in October 1967 and spent the next six years as a POW.

The pilots Connolly flew with in those days were a small, tightly knit group.

“There were not a lot of fighter pilots, particularly who were flying the F-100 or the F-105,” he said. “We all knew each other because we rotated around that system. So if you didn’t know the guy personally — and many of them you did — you knew someone who did. So each loss was amplified by the fact that, hey, we lost a really good guy here or there or he went in and we never heard from him.

“It’s always tough when you’ve lost three of four people on a given sortie and the next day you have to go up there again.”

Ground war

Rolling Thunder ushered in American ground combat because such a vast operation had to rely on more jets based in South Vietnam, aside from aircraft sortieing from Thailand and carriers at sea.

“So you’re going to have to put airplanes on the ground in Vietnam, and that’s in fact why in March of ’65 we put the Marines ashore in Da Nang, to secure the air base,” Willbanks said. “And of course, once you get the Marines ashore, you can’t secure an air base by sitting in the wire. You’ve got to patrol, and pretty soon what starts as a defensive means looks very much like offensive operations. And fairly quickly we’re in a real, no-kidding shooting war on the ground.”

Johnson tacitly admitted that Rolling Thunder had failed by announcing in March 1968 he would not run for re-election and that the U.S. was going to enter peace negotiations with North Vietnam, Marolda said.

In the decades since Rolling Thunder officially ended in the fall of 1968, the operation has routinely been held up as classic example of the pitfalls of political micromanagement of war.

“There’s some truth to that,” said Christian G. Appy, professor of history at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst and author of “American Reckoning: The Vietnam War and Our National Identity.”

“But what should not be forgotten is that while there were some constraints on bombing in the North, our bombing of the South was utterly unconstrained,” Appy said, adding that 4 million tons of bombs were dropped on the South, compared with 1 million tons in the North.

Appy argues that despite the destruction of Rolling Thunder, it had no impact because there was no military solution to be had in Vietnam.

“So long as the government in South Vietnam didn’t have the sufficient support of its own people, the American objective of creating a permanent, non-communist country called South Vietnam was just not going to happen.”

The legacy

Moyar said Rolling Thunder is an example of America’s recurring tendency to overestimate air power. “The precision of air power has improved greatly since Vietnam, but we continue to see the nation’s enemies adapting in ways that limit the damage that can be inflicted from the air.”

Col. Gregory Daddis, an academy professor of history at West Point, said he advises his students to look to history for perspective rather than specific lessons because context changes over time.

“In the case with Rolling Thunder, I think there’s something to be learned here about an honest dialogue between civilian policymakers and senior military leaders about what military force can achieve,” Daddis said.

A germane question Rolling Thunder raises is what beliefs and assumptions did civilian and military leaders hold that made them believe the U.S. could bend or break the will of Hanoi’s leaders through the military, in particular air power, he said.

“That’s important because it suggests that military power might not always be able to help you achieve your political objectives,” he said.

olson.wyatt@stripes.com